Written by Don Gomez
Election day is coming up soon and while many positions on your ballot this year are going uncontested, for instance Oregon’s 10 th House District held by David Gomberg of Neotsu, those that are up for grabs deserve a closer look. Also included is a brief overview of the many state and local ballot measures that voters will be deciding in this general election.
Federal
At the top of the ballot is the race for U.S. President. Former President Donald Trump
faces an uphill battle here in the Beaver State. The last time Oregon’s electoral votes
went to a Republican was exactly 40 years ago in 1984 when Ronald Reagan secured
55% of the vote count. [1] Recent partisan polling of 716 likely voters conducted by
Northwest Progressive Institute on Oct. 16 and 17 show Vice President Kamala Harris
leading by 12 points. This is an increase of 7 points for Harris over a poll of 700 likely
voters conducted in July by Portland based Hoffman Research Group. [2]
Moving on to the race for Oregon’s 4 th Congressional District, incumbent Val Hoyle, a
Democrat, is seeking re-election. The district includes Coos, Curry, Lincoln, Lane, and
Benton Counties as well as portions of Linn and Douglas Counties. Although facing
three opponents in the general election including Pacific Green candidate Justin Filip
and Libertarian Dan Bahlen, it is expected that Hoyle’s most ardent competitor will be
Republican attorney Monique DeSpain. DeSpain handily beat her primary opponent
Amy Ryan Courser in all counties except Lincoln which skewed in favor of Ryan
Courser by 6 points.
Hoyle seeks to retain her seat by focusing on key issues this election cycle, including
protecting women’s reproductive rights, increasing access to affordable housing, and
lowering energy costs for families and businesses. [3] DeSpain’s goals include increased border security and immigration reform with these themes repeating across her stated positions on a variety of other issues including public safety, foreign policy, and energy stability. [4]
Both candidates support the creation of an international container port at Coos Bay to
drive economic growth in the region. Election models presented by The Hill predict a Hoyle victory with 92% certainty, despite a marginal increase in support for DeSpain over previous models. [5]
State
State offices up for election this cycle including Secretary of State, State Treasurer, and Attorney General will have an outsized impact in determining Oregon’s future amidst an increasing divide in public opinion on matters such as reproductive rights and election security. Interestingly none of the aforementioned races have an incumbent seeking re-election.
Vying to become Oregon’s top law enforcement official, Democrat Dan Rayfield is
squaring off against Republican Will Lathrop in the race for Attorney General. The
candidates met just two weeks ago for the final debate of a hotly contested campaign
season. Lathrop highlights his prosecutorial work in Africa fighting human trafficking and
child labor as his chief qualification for the AG role. He promises to target drug cartels in
order to stem the flow of illegal, controlled substances into the state. Additionally,
Lathrop cites a “soft-corruption” problem in Oregon which he pledges to hold a zero
tolerance policy against. [6] In contrast, Rayfield, the former Speaker of the Oregon House of Representatives, promises to combat the state’s drug addiction crisis through “solutions-driven” approaches including a greater emphasis on getting offenders into treatment programs to reduce recidivism. Rayfield also vows to protect reproductive health rights against national attacks. [7]]
The previously mentioned Northwest Progressive Institute poll from mid-October gives Rayfield the edge 46% to Lathrop’s 41% but shows that a high percentage of voters
(13%) are as yet undecided as of Oct. 17th. The final deliberations of that undecided
bloc will be the determining factor in this key race.
As for the State’s top election official (amongst other duties), the race for Secretary of
State is a three-pronged battle between Nathalie Paravicini, Dennis Linthicum, and
Tobias Read who are endorsed by Pacific Greens & Progressive Parties, Republican &
Constitution Parties, and the Democratic & Working Families Parties respectively. Polls indicate Read as leading the field with 44% to Linthicum’s 38% and show Paravicini with a distant 3%. With nearly 15% of respondents remaining undecided, however, this is still a close race between the top two contenders.
The race for State Treasurer is also comprised of three candidates although with an
even slimmer margin between the top two candidates, Democrat Elizabeth Steiner and
Republican Brian Boquist. Pacific Green candidate Mary King is favored by 4% of
respondents. Given that the poll has a 3.7% margin of error, these numbers could be
even closer than they appear. Oregon’s Treasurer serves as the state's chief investment officer and has the duty of investing the assets of numerous funds including the Public Employees Retirement Fund, also referred to as PERS.
This election cycle, central coast residents will also play a large part in determining the
state’s legislative landscape. In the race for Oregon’s 5 th Senatorial District, incumbent
Dick Anderson of Lincoln City faces challenger Jo Beaudreau, a current City
Councilmember from Florence. While Anderson has out raised Beaudreau more than 4 to 1, the district’s liberal slant could prove difficult for the Republican Senator to
overcome. Anderson squeaked out a victory over Democrat Melissa Cribbins in 2020
after narrowly losing his first bid for the seat in 2016.
Drop boxes are located throughout the county. Ballots and need to be dropped off by 8pm on Tuesday November 5th.
Sources
1. https://www.270towin.com/states/Oregon
2. https://projects.fivethirtyeight.com/polls/president-general/2024/oregon/
3. https://valhoyle.com/priorities/
4. https://www.moniqueforcongress.com/issues/
5. https://elections2024.thehill.com/forecast/2024/house/oregon-4/
6. https://www.willlathrop.com/priorities
*Don Gomez is a local writer who owns Sterncastle Publishing. He ran for county commissioner commissioner in May but did not win.
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